Nifty's bounce back was impressive but the breakout could not sustain

Last week Tuesday, Nifty displayed a sharp fall and breakdown from the consolidation zone which triggered a sell signal as per our spreadsheet below 23851. Nifty closed at 23824 confirming the bearish trend. However, this weakness did not continue on the following day and a sharp bounce back was observed on Wednesday when Nifty recovered almost all the loss from the previous day.

The stop loss for that day from the bearish move was placed at 24078.60 and Nifty spot actually breached that value that day with a daily high of 24090.05. However, on closing basis the stop loss did survive when Nifty came down near the end of the session and closed at 24021.65.

This indicated that the bearish pressure is probably not over yet. However, more strength came to Nifty on Thursday and it decisively not only breached that day's stop loss pre-calculated as 23998 but remained above it all the time. This confirmed the bearish trend to be over, Nifty crossed the bullish trigger for that day at 24106 but a massive selling pressure towards the end of the session brought it back to below that trigger before closing for the week at 24056.

This has now created an indecisive situation. The bearish move of Tuesday is certainly over but the fresh bullish strength is also missing. The bullish and bearish triggers for Monday the 29th June are 24168 and 23870 respectively, on closing basis. We are not in any trade right now and waiting for the July series to begin from the 1st July. From the fresh geopolitical tensions arisen, it seems to be difficult for Nifty to close above that bullish trigger in the current month series.

Cheers and happy trading.