SMART MONEY TRACKER

This month has been quite a tumultuous journey for our strategy. We began the series with a long bias covered call position by purchasing Nifty futures at 24303 and selling an equal quantity of August 24400 put options at Rs 245.50. We maintained this bias for a significant period and only reversed our position when the downside break-even point of 24054 was reached on August 19. This occurred close to the monthly expiry, with very little premium left on the options, making t

Since August 11th, Nifty has consistently produced red candles and remained below the EBR/EBL bands. However, we maintained our bullish covered call position because the predetermined reversal point (24054, as noted in earlier posts this month) was never breached. Yesterday, that moment finally arrived when Nifty formed another strong red candle and dropped to a daily low of 24025. Simultaneously, the sell trigger for yesterday, according to our spreadsheet, was set at 24179,

Since the beginning of the August series, Nifty has consistently demonstrated strong performance with minimal volatility. The India VIX has significantly decreased, and since establishing our position as outlined in the previous post, we haven't faced any unrealized MTM losses. Up until Friday, July 31st, Nifty produced five consecutive green candles, and on August 3rd, with the implementation of the new CAS system, a significant breakout candle to the upside appeared. Since

On Monday, 27th July, Nifty ended a five-day bearish streak by recovering and closing 228 points higher at 23,995. The following day, 28th July, marked the monthly series expiry, during which Nifty remained stable and closed with a 10-point loss at 23,985. From that moment, we awaited a new trade trigger, which occurred on 29th July. Despite the bullish trigger for that day being at 24,048, Nifty demonstrated a strong movement and closed significantly higher at 24,250. Conseq

On Friday, July 24th, Nifty declined for the fifth consecutive day, reaching a critical range of 23623-23645, which were the close/high values from June 12th. On June 15th, Nifty opened with a significant gap, which had not been filled until now. After filling this gap on Friday, Nifty quickly found support and began to rise for the remainder of the day. This suggests that if the global cues stay positive over the weekend, Nifty might begin to rise due to some short covering.

The previous entry in this blog series was on July 2nd, when we initiated our first bullish position for the July series. This position was gaining profits nicely until July 7th. However, on July 8th, Nifty plummeted due to new war-related news, closing the day with a 520-point drop at 23,882, significantly below our reversal trigger point of 23,983. The decline was so steep that we refrained from taking a short position that day, opting to wait for a pullback, which occurred

On Thursday, 2nd July, Nifty opened with a significant gap up of 57 points at 24062 and remained above that level throughout the day. It steadily moved upwards and closed 170 points higher, confirming the bullish trend we anticipated in our previous post. On Friday, before the weekly close, Nifty demonstrated additional strength by opening 200 points higher at 24375 but could not maintain that level. Shortly after opening, it began to decline and ended the session at 24270, s

Since the gap up opening in Nifty on June 15th, triggered by the ceasefire on the war front, it has entered a consolidation zone following an ABCD pattern within the 23800-24250 range. From June 15th to the present, Nifty has experienced two upward movements, encountering resistance around the 24200-24250 mark, and two downward movements, finding support near the 23800 area. On July 1st, marking the beginning of the new July trading series, Nifty likely initiated a 5th wave u

On Tuesday of last week, Nifty experienced a significant decline and broke out of the consolidation zone, activating a sell signal according to our spreadsheet below 23851. Nifty ended the day at 23824, affirming the bearish trend. Nonetheless, this weakness did not persist the next day, as Wednesday saw a strong rebound with Nifty recovering nearly all of the previous day's losses. The stop loss for that day's bearish move was set at 24078.60, and the Nifty spot actually exc

On 18 June, the Nifty 50 showed strong bullish behavior despite starting the day with a 40-point decline. By the session's end, Nifty had risen by 82 points to reach 24,168, notably closing above the previous swing high of 24,090 recorded on 26 May. However, on 19 June, Nifty experienced profit-taking following a remarkable rally over the past five days. It opened with a significant gap down of 179 points and continued to drop by another 90 points before a sudden recovery nea